Greenspan - That took GUTS. THANKYOU!

[herosrest]

Greenspan Says That His Free-Market Ideology Was Flawed

Here's something that probably doesn't happen too often. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan had a crappier day than you did. He had to admit before our federal government that his free-market, anti-regulation ideology was "flawed." Ouch.

From Bloomberg:

"Yes, I found a flaw,'' Greenspan said in response to grilling from the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. ``That is precisely the reason I was shocked because I'd been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working

[herosrest]

Now Admit it is probable certainty
Economic Software in Concept, Design and Implementation is flawed.
Further - TRUST is the basis of TRADE........

Stock market prediction

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. Some believe that stock price movements are governed by the random walk hypothesis and thus are unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess a myriad of methods and technologies which purportedly allow them to gain future price information.

Implemented trusted systems are not predicting trends.
Reliance on the systems predictions - is CREATING the MARKET.
The market is being made and manipulated! by PREDICTION.
A MINOR FLAW.

[herosrest]

Prediction market

Prediction_interval

Sources of inaccuracy
Prediction markets suffer from the same types of inaccuracy as other kinds of market, i.e. liquidity or other factors not intended to be measured are taken into account as risk factors by the market participants, distorting the market probabilities. Prediction markets may also be subject to speculative bubbles. For example, in the year 2000 IEM presidential futures markets, a flood of new traders in the final week of the election caused the market to gyrate wildly, making its "predictions" useless.

Trend estimation
When a series of measurements of a process is treated as a time series, trend estimation is the application of statistical techniques to make and justify statements about trends in the data. Assuming the underlying process is a physical system that is incompletely understood, one may thereby construct a model, independent of anything known about the physics of the process, to explain the behaviour of the measurement. In particular, one may wish to know if the measurements exhibit an increasing or decreasing trend, that can be statistically distinguished from random behaviour.

There is a universal flaw running through the concepts. The assignment of value.
Chicken and egg.
These assessments undermine value to guage potential for profit.
They enable instability, are unstable and create chaos because value is undermined by excesses of excess.

In short and to the point - the logic is flawed. IT IS BIASED.
It is defended to the bitter death in argument with MumboJumbo
and yet is pure utter Gobbledeegook.
It is BOLLOX. Subjective chaos due to excess.
That excess is greed. A FATAL ERROR.

[herosrest]

Prediction market

Prediction_interval

Sources of inaccuracy
Prediction markets suffer from the same types of inaccuracy as other kinds of market, i.e. liquidity or other factors not intended to be measured are taken into account as risk factors by the market participants, distorting the market probabilities. Prediction markets may also be subject to speculative bubbles. For example, in the year 2000 IEM presidential futures markets, a flood of new traders in the final week of the election caused the market to gyrate wildly, making its "predictions" useless.

Trend estimation
When a series of measurements of a process is treated as a time series, trend estimation is the application of statistical techniques to make and justify statements about trends in the data. Assuming the underlying process is a physical system that is incompletely understood, one may thereby construct a model, independent of anything known about the physics of the process, to explain the behaviour of the measurement. In particular, one may wish to know if the measurements exhibit an increasing or decreasing trend, that can be statistically distinguished from random behaviour.

There is a universal flaw running through the concepts. The assignment of value.
Chicken and egg.
These assessments undermine value to guage potential for profit.
They enable instability, are unstable and create chaos because value is undermined by excesses of excess.

In short and to the point - the logic is flawed. IT IS BIASED.
It is defended to the bitter death in argument with MumboJumbo
and yet is pure utter Gobbledeegook.
It is B*LLO*X. Subjective chaos due to excess.
That excess is greed. A FATAL ERROR.

Mark-to-Market: The Bogeyman of the 1930s Is Back

FDR got rid of mark-to-market accounting in 1938 after it virtually destroyed the banking sector. Mark-to-market accounting was the law of the land for most of the Great Depression until outlawed in 1938. The rationale for 1930s mark-to-market accounting was similar to today’s: the need for price transparency based upon the efficient markets hypothesis in the banking sector.

For approximately 70 years after FDR’s decision, banks operated without mark-to-market accounting and the economy didn’t have the threat of another depression. Years later Milton Friedman wrote that mark-to-market accounting was responsible for the avoidable failure of many banks in the 1930s. Maybe it is just coincidence, but immediately after mark-to-market accounting was restored in 2007 the banking sector started into a death spiral. Congressional hearings on mark-to-market accounting are hopefully the first step towards stopping this terrible man made economic disaster.

Two things are absolutely essential when fixing financial market problems: time and growth. Time to work things out and growth to make working those things out easier. Mark-to-market accounting takes both of these away.

These rules force banks to write off losses before they even happen. This happens because markets are forward looking. For example, the price of many securitized mortgage pools is well below their value, based on cash flows. In other words, the market is pricing in more losses than have actually, or may ever, occur. The accounting rules force banks to take artificial hits to capital without reference to the actual performance of loans. The Banks can tomorrow turn around and write UP all those valuations they are now writing down. But.......... that would be breaking the law.

And this affects growth. By wiping out capital, so-called “fair value” accounting rules undermine the banking system, increase the odds of asset fire sales and make markets even less liquid. As this happened in 2008, investment banks failed, and the government proposed bailouts. This drove prices down even further, which hurt the economy. And now as growth suffers, bad loans multiply. It’s a vicious downward spiral…

Finance Businesses that actually 'understand Economics', rather than those following herd theories, are making a killing beyond wildest dreams. They are unscrupulous about it, that is business.

Net worth declined for a sixth consecutive quarter. Net worth is 'total assets' such as homes minus liabilities like mortgages and credit card debt. MINUS - liabilities like mortgages and credit debt. Households saw a 9% drop in wealth final quarter of 2008, the largest since the Fed began collecting records more than 50 years ago. Total net worth of households has now fallen 20% from $64.36tn in the third quarter of 2007 to $51.48 trillion. - $13tn For 2008, 4.91 million properties were sold - a tiny percentage off ALL homes. Existing home prices fell by 15.3%. This is just the housing market. It applies to all sectors, even very profitable business is hit!

US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke says the world is suffering from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.
He outlines four areas that need to be addressed to ensure that a similar crisis does not develop in the future.

• The problem, often referred to as 'too big to fail', whereby an institution gets so big that its failure has serious consequences for the whole financial system.
• Financial rules and conventions - on trading, payments and clearing, for example that underpin the financial system
• Regulation and accounting policies
• The creation of an authority to monitor and address systemic risk

There is a ton of stuff being reported World Wide that shows the problems all ACCELERATED THESE LAST 3 MONTHS. THAT WILL CONTINUE. BY THE TIME THE FUNDS REDEEMING BANK LIABILTY ARE REINVESTED THERE WILL NOT ACTUALLY BE ANY ECONOMY'S LEFT.

The truth to all this is this. The Banks can tomorrow turn around and write UP all those valuations they are now writing down. But.......... that would be breaking the law. Even though their numbers are guesses!!

We have the same stuff going in UK - people are being reticent about it - it wrecks the bottom line.
In point of fact, it simply removes it from any equation. The only way is down!
http://www.accountingweb.co.uk/cgi-b...%20%25B%20%25Y


These are micro rules that do not work in macro (grown up - real world) economics.

[herosrest]

Nations do more than TRADE, yet trade has become obsession.
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ
A YEAR AND MORE PAST, EXPOSURE TO DERIVATIVE TRADING EXCEEDED $512 TRILLION.
UNREGULATED INSANITY. (The lack of regulation is the insanity!)
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ

Financial and economic problems that exist, do so for one reason. There is no over view from which a measure or control can be effected. Plain and simple, the people who want left alone to do their thing, are doing their thing. lt is destructively self indulgent as all obsession is. As things stand, enduring devaluation is in effect because laws of economics and rules of trading have been confused. Finance is a means. It is not the ends.

The valuation of derivatives on balance sheets is a concern for investors and Government.
This has not been addressed by 'improvements' to accounting standards.

Pricing is a tool of trading - trading does not an economy make, regardless of the power and influence of those trading. Price is a tool of profit. Value and its means, valuation accounting are the tools of economics. Price is not. This fundamental issue must be addressed. Valuation is prime. Price is a tool subject to valuation. Price is not valuation. As matters stand, profit is destroying value. That is what is happening - greed.

Derivative trading must be divorced from underlying value. The dichotomy must be re-established, maintained and defended.

Trading, as throughout history must be taxed. Traders as throughout history do not want that. Government must keep traders in their place. They are middle men who enable lndustry for percentage - which has gotten out of hand. lt is called GREED, is out of control and those benefiting have gotten above themselves. They must be sorted out and put in place. They do not run the show. They like people to think that the case but it is not. It is human stupidity - arrogance.

Derivative trading must be taxed at source. Both party's entering a trade should record that deal with a global data base for fee and licence after vetting. Compliance should be total. There must be a global contol of the playground. Not a policeman on every financial corner but tacit and general compliance with sensible and, yes, that word, prudent oversight. Not intrusive but compliant.

Regulating derivative trading is a ............difficulty. The trading is worthwhile, it is necessary , it is rewarding, it is profitable, it is out of control and it is above all else GAMBLING with someone else's resources and wealth.

The activity is speculation, treat it as such. Exposures should be taxed, at contract. 4% of exposure should be the taxed at CONTRACT. Paid immediately. No offset, no deferral. A reality effect. An Insurance.

This is not Pi in the sky - it is reality. Responsibility took flight and remains in orbit above the planet. The economic problems today do not resolve until a sustained period of growth returns. This will not happen until the rape of wealth returns to earth from its stratosphere of costs and unsustainable returns. A crippling Tax on general wealth in effect. Financial trading costs are vastly over expensive. Both operating expense and capital return.

That fact has not yet been learned - it will be a very painful and expensive lesson. Greed is greed, the greedy are obsessive. They cannot stop, they will simply modify positions and continue and find excuse after plausible excuse. The laws of diminishing return are in force and will continue. The pot is shrinking. It is not an issue of productivity - it is decline. Devaluation. No value no profit, not the other way around. The issue is one of plain, simple greed and its inherent stupidity of human nature.

It must be addressed and controlled.

Some pre-amble - CLICK _____ Interesting stuff - CLICK
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ

[herosrest]

WHAT IS OUTLINED ABOVE IS - DISPASSIONATE. CLICK

A simple look out from a puddle of no particuler making that is being micro managed in the desire it will, in time, just go away. Evaporate so to speak. It won't go away. No one is prepared to lay down the LAW. Everyone who can influence matters is afraid of being covered with egg. It goes with the territory and leaders need to put the proverbial foot down. Right now!

The disaster unfolding is yesterdays mess. It is an immense pile of crud and mis-fortune that will eventually take out those who caused it. There is no way to save AIG. They burnt their bridges, lent the lifeboats, sold off their parachutes and fed the sharks. AIG IS, may l remind everyone, AN INSURANCE. BUSINESS. A top notch, top to bottom professional lnsurance business. No-one knows more or is more self interested than them. They sit at the breakfast table like a hungry baby.

Tax all derivatgive trading at source, when contracts are made. The funds generated will sort out existing problems. It's a burden yes. Business will trade out of it. Watch them, give them guidance, prepare them for a hard slog. Defend value and let the entrepeneurs and dealers do their thing with the bridle on this time. It just got massively carried away. Money needs to be in peoples pockets not bank vaults and property projects.
Finance is in trouble - it is taking out the entire system trying to survive.
Give them purpose, motivate them and let them trade out of this mess.

From the top down and the bottom up - cheap credit works. Unregulated derivative trading is suicide and Hedge Fund Largesse is daylight robbery. It isn't difficult to sort out if you step back and get honest. Lock the crooks away - who ever they are or it carries on and on and on.

[werz]

I'll offer a saying, it's no use closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.
Greenspan did his job, along with Bush and Clinton.
They destroyed the world's economies, and I predict there'll be rioting in the streets of the world by this summer. The best chance we have is if China recovers fast and starts importing lots of minerals from Australia. Too bad about you lot.
Ah well, interesting times ahead.

[herosrest]

Stock price is massively under valued - Interest in stock no longer bears relationship to underlying business.
The markets are a piggy bank manipulated to drain cash offshore to structured Bubbles.
Business is undervalued massively by perhaps 2 or 3 times current stock price.
Massive Value is being destroyed, the implications are Fatal....

Anyone avoiding Taxation - should simply be hung from the nearest lamp post.

[herosrest]

There are two reasons why people avoid paying TAX.

[Lgbpop]

Just let the markets be, and stop trying to regulate everything. Everytime something is tweaked in one spot, it bulges somewhere else. The overreaction we're experiencing now will cause more hurt and suffering than anything else ever did.

[herosrest]

Didn't say a word about regulation. Nothing was further from my mind. Supervision of a bunch of immatures and Altzheimer victims certainly, and heavy taxation of SHoRt profits......... but regulation - heaven forbid.

They all self regulate and i'm sure it's enlightning and very messy.

My point was the underlying techniques, the mastery of the market, if you will - nuts and bolts Dogma and theory underlying practise. And said use of profit takes to cash flow leveraged savings(haha) investment business, rather than reward hard working companyies with realistic prices. The markets are being raided like kiddies dipping piggy banks - it's continual. There are patterns of profit taking which have nothing what ever to do with business, buyers are allowed to trickle in long for 2-3 weeks boosting prices a few % and whamo... then it repeats.

[herosrest]

This CLICK IS ONE HELL OF A YACHT!

[herosrest]

The Number '7' has very special qualities.
By adding 8 ZErO's it becomes impossible to detect.

[herosrest]

There is interesting and 'inside' view HERE on Bonus.

Nothing personal, i found an interesting and amusing.
Very interesting and informative blog. NoW then!

When are these people going to grow up. You made a profit..... oh la ooh la la. That's your day job.
Pretty much anyone with a basic education and wits CAN do that job. Really. Let the school and
college youngsters do a placement for a few days and bosses might just find themselves
gobsmacked. Earn your pay and be grateful, the bonus is a cost shareholders and
customers don't want to carry anymore. It is inefficient - so are you.

[mcool61]

Just let the markets be, and stop trying to regulate everything. Everytime something is tweaked in one spot, it bulges somewhere else. The overreaction we're experiencing now will cause more hurt and suffering than anything else ever did.

I'm against ragulation but at the same time I agree with Ben STien who said you can't have people managing other peoples money without oversight. Would you like to give me all your money to manage & then just trust that I would do the right thing & never check up on me? Yes that is the right thing to do! Quickly send your money to
John Trustworthy
666 Down the toilet drive
Pueblo Colorado, 24242