Greenspan - That took GUTS. THANKYOU!

[werz]

Hawkwind...Pink Fairies

http://www.punk77.co.uk/punkhistory/...brokegrove.htm


Home >> Punk History >> Hawkwind...Pink Fairies
The best live act you'll ever see, naked dancers awesome music and lightshow.
It takes guts.

[Lgbpop]

Crazy Joe and the Variable Speed Band

[mireland]

slipknot

[herosrest]

Prediction market

Prediction_interval

Sources of inaccuracy
Prediction markets suffer from the same types of inaccuracy as other kinds of market, i.e. liquidity or other factors not intended to be measured are taken into account as risk factors by the market participants, distorting the market probabilities. Prediction markets may also be subject to speculative bubbles. For example, in the year 2000 IEM presidential futures markets, a flood of new traders in the final week of the election caused the market to gyrate wildly, making its "predictions" useless.

Trend estimation
When a series of measurements of a process is treated as a time series, trend estimation is the application of statistical techniques to make and justify statements about trends in the data. Assuming the underlying process is a physical system that is incompletely understood, one may thereby construct a model, independent of anything known about the physics of the process, to explain the behaviour of the measurement. In particular, one may wish to know if the measurements exhibit an increasing or decreasing trend, that can be statistically distinguished from random behaviour.

There is a universal flaw running through the concepts. The assignment of value.
Chicken and egg.
These assessments undermine value to guage potential for profit.
They enable instability, are unstable and create chaos because value is undermined by excesses of excess.

In short and to the point - the logic is flawed. IT IS BIASED.
It is defended to the bitter death in argument with MumboJumbo
and yet is pure utter Gobbledeegook.
It is B*LLO*X. Subjective chaos due to excess.
That excess is greed. A FATAL ERROR.

Mark-to-Market: The Bogeyman of the 1930s Is Back

FDR got rid of mark-to-market accounting in 1938 after it virtually destroyed the banking sector. Mark-to-market accounting was the law of the land for most of the Great Depression until outlawed in 1938. The rationale for 1930s mark-to-market accounting was similar to today’s: the need for price transparency based upon the efficient markets hypothesis in the banking sector.

For approximately 70 years after FDR’s decision, banks operated without mark-to-market accounting and the economy didn’t have the threat of another depression. Years later Milton Friedman wrote that mark-to-market accounting was responsible for the avoidable failure of many banks in the 1930s. Maybe it is just coincidence, but immediately after mark-to-market accounting was restored in 2007 the banking sector started into a death spiral. Congressional hearings on mark-to-market accounting are hopefully the first step towards stopping this terrible man made economic disaster.

Two things are absolutely essential when fixing financial market problems: time and growth. Time to work things out and growth to make working those things out easier. Mark-to-market accounting takes both of these away.

These rules force banks to write off losses before they even happen. This happens because markets are forward looking. For example, the price of many securitized mortgage pools is well below their value, based on cash flows. In other words, the market is pricing in more losses than have actually, or may ever, occur. The accounting rules force banks to take artificial hits to capital without reference to the actual performance of loans. The Banks can tomorrow turn around and write UP all those valuations they are now writing down. But.......... that would be breaking the law.

And this affects growth. By wiping out capital, so-called “fair value” accounting rules undermine the banking system, increase the odds of asset fire sales and make markets even less liquid. As this happened in 2008, investment banks failed, and the government proposed bailouts. This drove prices down even further, which hurt the economy. And now as growth suffers, bad loans multiply. It’s a vicious downward spiral…

Finance Businesses that actually 'understand Economics', rather than those following herd theories, are making a killing beyond wildest dreams. They are unscrupulous about it, that is business.

Net worth declined for a sixth consecutive quarter. Net worth is 'total assets' such as homes minus liabilities like mortgages and credit card debt. MINUS - liabilities like mortgages and credit debt. Households saw a 9% drop in wealth final quarter of 2008, the largest since the Fed began collecting records more than 50 years ago. Total net worth of households has now fallen 20% from $64.36tn in the third quarter of 2007 to $51.48 trillion. - $13tn For 2008, 4.91 million properties were sold - a tiny percentage off ALL homes. Existing home prices fell by 15.3%. This is just the housing market. It applies to all sectors, even very profitable business is hit!

US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke says the world is suffering from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.
He outlines four areas that need to be addressed to ensure that a similar crisis does not develop in the future.

• The problem, often referred to as 'too big to fail', whereby an institution gets so big that its failure has serious consequences for the whole financial system.
• Financial rules and conventions - on trading, payments and clearing, for example that underpin the financial system
• Regulation and accounting policies
• The creation of an authority to monitor and address systemic risk

There is a ton of stuff being reported World Wide that shows the problems all ACCELERATED THESE LAST 3 MONTHS. THAT WILL CONTINUE. BY THE TIME THE FUNDS REDEEMING BANK LIABILTY ARE REINVESTED THERE WILL NOT ACTUALLY BE ANY ECONOMY'S LEFT.

The truth to all this is this. The Banks can tomorrow turn around and write UP all those valuations they are now writing down. But.......... that would be breaking the law. Even though their numbers are guesses!!

We have the same stuff going in UK - people are being reticent about it - it wrecks the bottom line.
In point of fact, it simply removes it from any equation. The only way is down!
http://www.accountingweb.co.uk/cgi-b...%20%25B%20%25Y


These are micro rules that do not work in macro (grown up - real world) economics.

[herosrest]

Nations do more than TRADE, yet trade has become obsession.
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ
A YEAR AND MORE PAST, EXPOSURE TO DERIVATIVE TRADING EXCEEDED $512 TRILLION.
UNREGULATED INSANITY. (The lack of regulation is the insanity!)
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ

Financial and economic problems that exist, do so for one reason. There is no over view from which a measure or control can be effected. Plain and simple, the people who want left alone to do their thing, are doing their thing. lt is destructively self indulgent as all obsession is. As things stand, enduring devaluation is in effect because laws of economics and rules of trading have been confused. Finance is a means. It is not the ends.

The valuation of derivatives on balance sheets is a concern for investors and Government.
This has not been addressed by 'improvements' to accounting standards.

Pricing is a tool of trading - trading does not an economy make, regardless of the power and influence of those trading. Price is a tool of profit. Value and its means, valuation accounting are the tools of economics. Price is not. This fundamental issue must be addressed. Valuation is prime. Price is a tool subject to valuation. Price is not valuation. As matters stand, profit is destroying value. That is what is happening - greed.

Derivative trading must be divorced from underlying value. The dichotomy must be re-established, maintained and defended.

Trading, as throughout history must be taxed. Traders as throughout history do not want that. Government must keep traders in their place. They are middle men who enable lndustry for percentage - which has gotten out of hand. lt is called GREED, is out of control and those benefiting have gotten above themselves. They must be sorted out and put in place. They do not run the show. They like people to think that the case but it is not. It is human stupidity - arrogance.

Derivative trading must be taxed at source. Both party's entering a trade should record that deal with a global data base for fee and licence after vetting. Compliance should be total. There must be a global contol of the playground. Not a policeman on every financial corner but tacit and general compliance with sensible and, yes, that word, prudent oversight. Not intrusive but compliant.

Regulating derivative trading is a ............difficulty. The trading is worthwhile, it is necessary , it is rewarding, it is profitable, it is out of control and it is above all else GAMBLING with someone else's resources and wealth.

The activity is speculation, treat it as such. Exposures should be taxed, at contract. 4% of exposure should be the taxed at CONTRACT. Paid immediately. No offset, no deferral. A reality effect. An Insurance.

This is not Pi in the sky - it is reality. Responsibility took flight and remains in orbit above the planet. The economic problems today do not resolve until a sustained period of growth returns. This will not happen until the rape of wealth returns to earth from its stratosphere of costs and unsustainable returns. A crippling Tax on general wealth in effect. Financial trading costs are vastly over expensive. Both operating expense and capital return.

That fact has not yet been learned - it will be a very painful and expensive lesson. Greed is greed, the greedy are obsessive. They cannot stop, they will simply modify positions and continue and find excuse after plausible excuse. The laws of diminishing return are in force and will continue. The pot is shrinking. It is not an issue of productivity - it is decline. Devaluation. No value no profit, not the other way around. The issue is one of plain, simple greed and its inherent stupidity of human nature.

It must be addressed and controlled.

Some pre-amble - CLICK _____ Interesting stuff - CLICK
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ

[herosrest]

WHAT IS OUTLINED ABOVE IS - DISPASSIONATE. CLICK

A simple look out from a puddle of no particuler making that is being micro managed in the desire it will, in time, just go away. Evaporate so to speak. It won't go away. No one is prepared to lay down the LAW. Everyone who can influence matters is afraid of being covered with egg. It goes with the territory and leaders need to put the proverbial foot down. Right now!

The disaster unfolding is yesterdays mess. It is an immense pile of crud and mis-fortune that will eventually take out those who caused it. There is no way to save AIG. They burnt their bridges, lent the lifeboats, sold off their parachutes and fed the sharks. AIG IS, may l remind everyone, AN INSURANCE. BUSINESS. A top notch, top to bottom professional lnsurance business. No-one knows more or is more self interested than them. They sit at the breakfast table like a hungry baby.

Tax all derivatgive trading at source, when contracts are made. The funds generated will sort out existing problems. It's a burden yes. Business will trade out of it. Watch them, give them guidance, prepare them for a hard slog. Defend value and let the entrepeneurs and dealers do their thing with the bridle on this time. It just got massively carried away. Money needs to be in peoples pockets not bank vaults and property projects.
Finance is in trouble - it is taking out the entire system trying to survive.
Give them purpose, motivate them and let them trade out of this mess.

From the top down and the bottom up - cheap credit works. Unregulated derivative trading is suicide and Hedge Fund Largesse is daylight robbery. It isn't difficult to sort out if you step back and get honest. Lock the crooks away - who ever they are or it carries on and on and on.

[herosrest]

[werz]

You told us it was the derivatives that are causing the problems.
Why is this turkey still blaming the subprime market for the crisis?

Citing massive losses in the sub-prime markets as evidence of how bad the crisis is and how many experts underestimated the depth of the recession is, Hegarty said there are three areas that will shape the restructuring of the financial markets: risk management, regulation and market structure. "Last May at this conference, there were $254 billion in write downs. Today, the industry is at $815 billion," he said. "Clearly, the industry will go over $1 trillion in write downs, but the question is if it will now go over $1.5 trillion." For a frame of reference, last year Hegarty predicted the industry might see $500 billion in total write downs.♠

Is it because he's a goose, and not a turkey?

[herosrest]

DEREGULATE THIS.

CLICK It will never be acceptable, for significant and good reason to regulate markets to universal satisfaction.
Self Regulation is an effective and workable practise which will mature.
It is Prime significance that Government and administrations know and understand the transfer and distribution of funds.
That concept cannot be dismissed.

CLICK December 22, 2004 - After the American International Group settlement three weeks ago with federal regulators over the sale of insurance that helped companies manipulate their earnings, one big question remains: Is there anything else rattling in A.I.G.'s closet?

チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモン
Professor Schwab is entering the history books having stated that -
'the current situation was a perfect example of where banks could
take the lead and devise a system of self-regulation,................'
Oh hi y'all.......l self regulate.............. it's so-oooooooo kool.......
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモン
A problem (serious problem) is that A.I.G. is such a large, complex company, that even it may not have the bird's-eye view of what it has done wrong. But the company's traditionally close-lipped approach to disclosing details of its business is weighing heavily on the minds of some Wall Street analysts, who wonder what other problems, if any, may be discovered.
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモン
the answer - Cap and trade rather than the cap in hand.
チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモン

A SOLUTION - a 'Fine' solution.

There are easy and hard ways to do things. Self Regulation is in the firing line. It has become a joke. It is discredited. It is a mistake to replace it. Self regulation is immature. That is the problem, trust and common sense flew away to orbit the planet. The serious calls begin - to Regulate. Regulate, regulate, regulate. It is justified. It is neccesary. It can be sensible. A global entity, a TRUST must ensue for the task. It must be democratic not autocratic.

The probems that developed today, occur because there is no authorative Global measure of Trade. This can be fixed - quickly and easily. Business wants left alone, authority greater control.It comes down to measure, proper measure of activity rather than measures of laws. Goverments were unaware of major and growing economc problems. Business was looking to its own interest. That is the way of things. lt really is the way of things.

Had oversight of financial trade been in place, the problems would have been spotted, addressed and mitigated before serious problems developed. A democracy of consequence. A quiet word here, a knee in the nuts there.

チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモン

Open, simple real time measure of all financial trading. A global commitment by Industry, Traders, Goverments and regulators. Administered by the markets and overseen by government. Open trade. Open trading. Measured in real time with the data freely (at cost) available to one and all. A market place of data. A bazaar of trading info. A centre of Buzz.............. It will work, simple genius it is.

チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモン

The AIG 'CoN'-undrum is real world example. Allow me to illucidate.

Futures, the derivative 'MARKET' went OTT- lucrative low risk high reward trading that proved much more than a grenade with short fuse. The fuse at AIG hasn't quite ignited the underlying yet. We face that imminent prospect.

The size of derivative exposure may be acceptable to those practising its art. It is insurance.It is under-priced. A cap and Trade system of control as exists for carbon, will bring reality to underpricing of systemic derivative risk. A global control. Not contractual or party risk but systemic risk.

Simple, easy, effective. Realistic 'Taxation' through licencing of the contracts will refine a pricing mechanism that, should and could, be used to resolve the legacy issues such as AIG. What was under priced will over-price and settle to a stable, productive and very neccesary free market. One properly supervised and self regulated. A 'short term' surplus taken in taxation can neutralise the legacy derivative problems of liabilities. The customer always pays, one way or other.

Self regulation must be forced into maturity through oversight. Market trading logic is not ECONOMICS. Those who study and extol its virtue are not economists. They are Traders who will by nature and desire attempt to dominate.

[herosrest]

As a project, a 'Tardis' at Tilbury is do-able (as a priority project - Global importance and all that stuff...) for the 2012 Olympics. What an occasion.

- CLICK PICTURE.

Vision is our gift. Its inspiration our trial.

[herosrest]

l read this and had to smile......... wtf??? at stupidity.
Quote - "AIG's problems have been because it was involved in financial products, which is not insurance," he said.
Disasters payouts push premiums

Well............ listen up, Eric Johnston at theage.com.au (a terrific font of news, fact and insight).
Eric, go find a job doing something you understand. You are ah so!

AIG and others, underwrote Bank's and Insurer's. They insured their capital. This is why they are in trouble, this is why the US government is supporting them. They have commitments to honour to Foreign Banks and insurers. AIG under valued the business they engaged in, under priced their charges, avoided realistic risk assessment and ensured disaster with far more than lucrative reward for sales and secrecy. Their product was massively under priced and they did not hedge risk. This is what has happened. Insurance, Derived insurance, gone insane.
Criminal negligence.

The fact, resolve and practise of the US government and NATION, honouring the commitments of these contracts is enough. That is now all that is required. Guarantees.

[herosrest]

Shares of International Paper Co rose 12.64 percent to $7.13 on bargain hunting in the sector and news the company had refinanced a loan last week. The stock, which hit a 52-week high of $31.30 exactly a year ago, traded as low as $3.93 earlier this month

Perhaps investors scent an end to the constipated economy.

YES FOLKS! - it won't go away. The system can't handle it.

チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ

Trond Andresen knows a li'l about accumulation of Capital. He has thought about it and produced theory in 1994. It is remarkable work. This guy should be asked to take a long hard look at current Financial problems as a matter of urgency.

1994 - Abstract: The long-range impact of real returns on any form of saved or invested money on a macro-economy is modeled and discussed. It is shown that, subject to conditions concerning savings rate and loan amortization time, any economic system with positive real returns must eventually reach a depression-like economic state, regardless of real output growth. The observed disproportionate growth of financial sectors in recent years is explained by the proposed theory. A simple dynamic model for "long waves" in world capitalism is also presented. IMHO there are two _different_ explanations for long-term cycles/paths toward depression in capitalism, which have that in common that they may be categorized as "accumulation- related". ........

ECONOMIC BLACK HOLES- THE DYNAMICS AND CONSEQUENCES OF ACCUMULATION

チャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチャットモンチチ

........ Accumulation of assets on one side is accumulation of debts on the other, what we may call polarization. Economic fragility will increase with polarization as stated above. Debtors will sooner or later default on a large scale, and creditors will lose money, and also have few new safe investment opportunities. Society will grind to halt. If such a crisis mechanism is present, also a technologically static economy will experience a path towards depression. On the other hand, the first (capital intensity) mechanism does not predict crisis for such a society. By this I have made the point that the two theories are qualitively different. They are Dichotomies!

Capital accumulation.

During 18 months all economies has devalued by some 30%. The devaluation works its way through all sectors of the economy, some lag behind, property and credit take the brunt. There is no stimulus that can match the 30%. The devaluation will continue. It will continue at 30% BUT the next 30% will take only 15 months because time is devalued or in mathematical terms Time is accelerated. That is not good.

Capitalism, accumulates and manages wealth. The idea and concept is second nature to any responsible person. Practice of the concept is fundamentally flawed. Unpicking that flaw solves all the advanced nations current economic dis-shevelments in short order. The changes required 'challenge' business practice and attack an incumbent mindset.

There is a problem with economic practice and theory - the cause of recent havoc. lndividual's, business, conglomerates and nations all garner 'nest eggs' which ACCUMULATE . No one in their right minds will give them up - That is the problem.
The accumulation of capital is unending and the search for ways to protect and grow the huge sums have become quite esoteric.

Capital must be released back to the current account. Much more than is provided by interest and dividends. The growing Investments are a permanent bubble. Returns, earnings 'inflate' Capital ie 13% 'roe and 10% roi' are simply inflationary and over priced. There is the root of the problem today. There is the ever present reason for BUBBLES.

Derivative trading such as that under taken by AIG requires a total revamp and open regulation. It can be a very profitable business - done correctly. Losses and commitments are a legacy problem and must be seen as such. New business, properly priced and with a levy can earn back government investment.

Recent attempts to 'refine' accounting practice are impractical because they destroy Asset value - removing liquidity AND destroying investments. The rate of devaluation exceeds all ability to pump up the economy. Every sector of trade and business is just about completing a 30%'ish devaluation.

Crazy and Limited problems existed in Finance and Credit and Real Estate. Look at it 18 months later. Yup 30%, in 18 months - across the board. A 30% shrink of everything. Even Business doing stellar success will be revaluing all assets downwards, again... they dodged it a while now, crunch. That will spin a few heads.

2% of the gross pension, Mutual, Hedge and anything else you want to include, should liquidate back into the current account each year. This is in addition to interest and Capital gains. The accumulation of invested funds is a serious, serious problem for all advanced economy's. The returns required for investment are unrealistic and eventually cripple economic activity..

Short selling and trading in stock markets is destroying stock and share value. The practice is predatory, unending in computer trading and analysis and systemically destructive. "

There is nothing to prevent devaluation continuing. IT is ARBITRARY and enforced! The current practice is a self fulfilling spiral to Value+zero because price is an arbitrary tool. Traders CAN make a profit at zero. They drive price down for profit. Price is destroying value. Matters are back to front. Trading is not economics.

Should Passion be banned from making polls !!
Enough is enough

Hi:Can you please explain to me what is wrong with my poll !!!
I think they are very Cool & they doesn't hurt anybody
On the other hand if you decided to Shut them down it all up to you
Later,Passion ..

[herosrest]

Asset revaluations which are currently taking place, are - unnecessary and arbitrary. They might as well be made by cats and dogs in the park. The economic wealth of a nation accumulated across century's, devalued by 30% in 18 months. Someone had a bad trip and then decided to share it - with everyone else. Genius is insanity. People who Trade for a living are dangerous - they think they are better and cleverer than the rest. All they want is to get one over for profit. The more the better. That is what it is about not the consequences. Truly, madly, plainly, insane. Straight from the school playground to global financial trading.

[herosrest]

Trade financing shortfall deepens - Amid the liquidity crunch, trade financing has dried up, with financiers now requiring more collateral before issuing credit and charging higher interest rates. Trade financing has been described as the "lifeblood" without which global trade would stall. Key banks active in the field of trade finance such as HSBC, JP Morgan, Royal Bank of Scotland and Commerzbank sent representatives to Wednesday's meeting. A November estimate of shortfall in cash to finance trade was 25 billion dollars, or 0.25 percent of the overall market, which is worth 10 trillion dollars. The shortfall in trade financing has expanded since November to around 100 billion dollars. A drought in liquidity is now not only affecting industrialised markets such as the United States but also hitting emerging markets including India and South Korea. What started as a problem on Wall Street and London that was directly linked to the liquidity crisis -- that problem has moved gradually to emerging markets.

[mireland]

save the whales...harpoon an aig exec.